World Coconut Scenario: Production, Area Under Harvest, and Yield

This article analyses four aspects:

(1) Trends in world coconut production,

(2) Trends in area harvested

(3) Trends in yield per hectare.

(4)  Discussion on the challenges, opportunities and strategies for the coconut sector revival

3.1 GLOBAL SCENARIO OF COCONUT SECTOR

Coconut is an environment friendly palm of the tropical countries, primarily in the Indo-Pacific region. Spread over 12.50 million hectares in more than 90 countries, the coconut palms provide around 64.3 billion nuts annually, approximately 6 million tons in coconut oil equivalent. Almost 98% of the global coconut production is contributed by over 10 million resource poor smallholder farmers around the world, who get about USD$ 7.73 Billion per annum.[i] About 80 million people in over 90 countries depend directly on coconut for their livelihood.

Coconut production is primarily for domestic consumption in most producing countries and it has been estimated that 70% of the total coconut production is consumed locally. This makes coconut a critical global food security crop.

The International Coconut Community (ICC) [ii]  has estimated that the global coconut sector is dominated by aging and senile palms at over 60 years of age, with decline in yield by over 40% in most instances. According to ICC appraisal, 50% of palm population at the global level is old and senile and the senile palm population is over 70% in the Pacific region.

With over 50% of global harvested coconut palms being senile and at the end of their life and have passed their economic bearing age (60 years), they are due for replanting. It has been estimated that around 900 million coconut seedlings are required at a value of USD$ 2.7 Billion to ensure a sustainable future for the global coconut estate. [iii] At the same time, the low prices of copra mean that incentives for replanting are very limited. Infestation and climate change are additional threats.

Although higher yielding varieties of coconut have been developed, they are typically more management and input intensive. Moreover, even with hybrids, smallholders are reluctant to face the loss of current production of coconuts and of inter-cropped crops that replanting entails. 

 

 

3.2. TRENDS IN WORLD COCONUT PRODUCTION – AN OVERVIEW

World coconut production was 62 million tonnes in 2018, as per FAO data. The UN/FAO data on coconut production for the past half century (from 1969 to 2018) is furnished in Table 3.1.

World production of coconut has not increased significantly in the last three decades. From 43 million tonnes in 1990, production increased to 62 million tonnes by 2018. The increase is less than 50 % in a span of 28 years. However, in the last half a century there was an overall increase in global production of coconut by 2.5 times. From 25 million tonnes in 1969, it increased to 62 million tonnes in 2018 (Table – 1).

Considering the global economic progress achieved during the five decades and the strides made in agriculture production and productivity, the growth in world coconut production during the period is far from satisfactory.         

            Table -3.1 World production of coconuts from 1969 to 2018

(Based on UN/ FAO data)

Year	World coconut Production (tons)
2018	6,18,65,423
2017	6,04,44,228
2016	6,05,91,792
2015	5,94,19,784
2014	6,14,46,372
2013	6,24,79,697
2012	6,22,90,927
2011	5,88,11,737
2010	6,05,43,524
2009	6,15,06,527
2008	6,06,05,355
2007	6,21,87,516
2006	5,81,68,900
2005	5,77,31,438
2004	5,50,05,083
2003	5,42,82,133
2002	5,35,66,981
2001	5,19,72,109
2000	5,12,25,620
1999	4,93,43,377
1998	4,90,06,290
1997	5,01,44,766
1996	4,94,44,194
1995	5,04,06,745
1994	4,86,15,761
1993	4,71,16,504
1992	4,57,34,253
1991	4,39,96,586
1990	4,34,68,901
1980	3,22,47,761
1969	2,53,61,442

 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=FAO&f=itemCode%3A249

 

 

World coconut productions for selected years are presented in Chart-1.

Chart – 3.1 World Production of Coconut (for selected years)

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

Global production of coconut doubled in 25 years from 25 million tonnes in 1969, to 50 million tonnes in 1995. The pace of growth in production has been slow ever since – an increase of 12 million tonnes in the next 23 years.

The global coconut production had increased to over 62.2 million tonnes in 2007. However, production declined in most of the subsequent years until 2018, when it reached 61.9 million tonnes. Half a century of world production of coconut provides a gloomy picture. The production situation calls for a detailed analysis.

World coconut production: Analysis of growth rate (CAGR)

UN data on world coconut production, available for a period of 50 years (from 1969 to 2018), show a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.80 per cent (Chart 3.2).

 

 

The growth rate has shown a steady decline over the years. The compound annual growth rate declined to 1.22 per cent during the 29 year period from 1990 to 2018. During the 19 year period from 2000 to 2018, the CAGR declined to 1.00 per cent.           

 

Chart: 3.2 CAGR in world coconut production since 1969 

 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

The CAGR turned negative during the 12 year span from 2007 to 2018 (-0.04 %) and it continued to remain negative during the seven year period from 2012 to 2018 (-0.10%). Evidently, the growth rate (CAGR) in world coconut production remained negative since 2007.                                         

Coconut Production: CAGR for specific time intervals        

CAGR for specific time intervals make the picture clearer (Chart 3.3).  The highest growth rate was achieved during the early period (1969 to 1990) and the CAGR was 2.60 per cent. There has been a gradual decline in the compound annual growth rate in world coconut production ever since.

 

 

 

 

 

Chart 3.3 World Coconut Production: CAGR during Specific Periods

 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

The CAGR in world coconut production declined during the period from 1991 to 2000 to 1.66 %. In the first decade of the current century, the CAGR in coconut production declined to 1.54%. For the period 2011 to 2018, the CAGR further declined to 0.63%.            

 

3.3. GLOBAL TRENDS IN COCONUT AREA HARVESTED 

 

World Coconut: Land Area Harvested

 

The relationship is quite logical. Increase in area harvested and increase in yield per hectare significantly contribute to increase in coconut production. The area harvested indirectly indicates the area of land under coconut cultivation.

 

Table 3.2 provides the relevant UN data on the land area of coconut plantations harvested.

 

Table 3.2 World coconut: Land area harvested

Year	Global Land area of coconut plantations harvested (ha)
2018	1,23,81,051
2017	1,22,73,114
2016	1,20,92,749
2015	1,19,15,093
2014	1,18,27,960
2013	1,20,02,342
2012	1,20,23,639
2011	1,19,05,243
2010	1,17,51,411
2009	1,14,61,461
2008	1,14,23,137
2007	1,14,84,801
2006	1,11,03,131
2005	1,10,42,176
2004	1,09,41,085
2003	1,08,68,406
2002	1,08,06,501
2001	1,09,22,685
2000	1,06,56,724
1999	1,05,93,797
1998	1,05,60,051
1997	1,07,27,811
1996	1,07,79,344
1995	1,06,94,778
1994	1,06,00,858
1993	1,03,76,865
1992	1,01,06,062
1991	1,01,23,409
1990	99,85,840
1980	87,60,494
1969	65,91,834

 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=FAO&f=itemCode%3A249

 

The land area of coconut plantations harvested in 1969 was 6.6 million hectares. The area harvested increased to 12.4 million hectares in 2018. In fact, the area harvested has not even doubled during the 50 year period.

There was increase in the area under harvest during the 1970s and the 1980s. It increased from 6.6 million hectares in 1969 to 10 million hectares in 1990. However, subsequent addition to the area harvested was very limited.

To add one more million hectares to the area harvested, it took another 15 years. To the 11 million hectares achieved in 2005, one more million hectare was added in another seven years (2012). Hardly any significant addition was made to the 12 million hectors reached in 2012, and the total area harvested remained 12.38 million hectares in 2018. In the last three decades there was a total addition of 2.4 million hectares to the coconut area harvested. 

The implication is that the land area brought under coconut cultivation has remained stagnant over the decades.

 

 

Trend in compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in area harvested

The area under coconut harvest has not increased significantly since the 1970s. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in coconut area harvested during the 50 year period from 1969 to 2018 is given in Chart -3.4

Chart -3.4 World Coconut Scenario: Trends in Area Harvested (ha) – CAGR

 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

The growth rate (CAGR) for the entire 50 year period is 1.27 %. Since 1990 growth (CAGR) in the area harvested had remained 0.48 %, far inadequate to achieve any significant increase in coconut production. This is reflected in the low rate of growth recorded in coconut production (1.27%) since 1990. In fact, the growth rate in coconut production turned negative since 2007.

 

Coconut area harvested: CAGR for specific time intervals

The CAGR for specific time intervals (Chart 3.5) provides a clear picture. The trend in overall decline in CAGR in the long term is on account of the low growth rate (CAGR) during specific time intervals.

 

 

 

 

Chart -3.5 World Coconut Scenario: Area harvested (Ha) – CAGR during Specific Periods

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

There was modest growth (2%) in area under harvest during the first two decades under analysis. The increase in area harvested was marginal over the last three decades: 0.51 % during the period from 1991 to 2000, 0.73 % between 2001 and 2010 and 0.39 % during the period from 2011 to 2018.

A comparison of the growth trends in world coconut production and the trend in area harvested is quite relevant and revealing. Chart 3.6 discloses that as the area harvested declines , there is a deeper decline in coconut production.

Chart -3.6 CAGR: World Coconut Production and Area Harvested

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

3.4 GLOBAL TRENDS IN COCONUT YIELD PER HECTARE

Coconut Yield per hectare/ Productivity

Increase in the yield per hectare significantly contributes to increase in the total coconut production and productivity.  A major challenge of the global coconut saga relates to the coconut yield per hectare.

3.3 World coconut production and yield per hectare                                     

Year	Global Coconut Yield (Kg/ha)
2018	4,997
2017	4,925
2016	5,011
2015	4,987
2014	5,195
2013	5,206
2012	5,181
2011	4,940
2010	5,152
2009	5,366
2008	5,306
2007	5,415
2006	5,239
2005	5,228
2004	5,027
2003	4,995
2002	4,957
2001	4,758
2000	4,807
1999	4,658
1998	4,641
1997	4,674
1996	4,587
1995	4,713
1994	4,586
1993	4,541
1992	4,525
1991	4,346
1990	4,353
1980	3,681
1969	3,847

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=FAO&f=itemCode%3A249

 

UN / FAO data (Table 3.3) shows that there was some increase in coconut yield during the half century under review, but the estimated yield improvement has been marginal and very insignificant.

Yield per hectare is considered an indicator of productivity. The world average of the annual coconut production per hectare was 3871 kg in 1969. There was, however, a decline in average yield during the 1970s and the reported yield per hectare in 1980 was 3681 kg. The annual yield per hectare increased to 4353 Kg in 1990. Marginal increase in yield was reported for the next 14 years.

The yield per hectare reached 5027 kg in 2004. The highest yield was reported in 2007 when it reached 5415 kg per hectare. The yield levels have been declining ever since. In 2018 the yield was 4997 kg per hectare.

 

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Yield per hectare.

Analysis of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in yield per hectare provides a quantitative image of the situation.

Chart -3.7 World Coconut Scenario: Yield (Kg/ha) – CAGR

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

The CAGR in coconut yield per hectare during the long span of 50 years from 1969 to 2018 (Chart…..) was 0.52%.  The growth (CAGR) declined in the subsequent periods: 0.48% during 1990 – 2018 and 0.20 % during 2000-2018. Since 2007 the growth rate has remained negative.

 

CAGR: Trends in global coconut yield for specific time intervals

Analysis of the CAGR for specific time intervals (Chart 3.8) reveals that the CAGR has been less than 1% during most of the time intervals. For the period 2011 – 2018, the CAGR was 0.14 %.

Chart -3.8 World Coconut Scenario: Yield (Kg/ha) for Specific Periods – CAGR

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

World coconut production and yield per hectare

A major reason for the decline in world coconut production is the decline in yield per hectare.  Data in Chart 3.9 show that there is a direct relationship between total coconut production and yield per hectare. As the yield declines, there is a corresponding decrease in coconut production.

Aging trees, pest and disease, destruction of palms with climate change and neglect of farm management are among the major reasons for low coconut yield. The low yield is a disincentive for replanting and investment in the sector.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chart -3.9 World Coconut Scenario: CAGR – Production and Yield (Kg/ Ha)

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

Overview: Global trends in coconut production, area harvested and yield per hectare

A comparative analysis of the compound annual growth rates in world coconut production, area harvested and yield per hectare is given in Chart 3.10.

Chart -3.10 Trends in World Coconut Production, Area harvested and Yield 

Source: UN/ FAO statistical data base

World coconut production, area harvested and yield per hectare are three related variables and the positive relationship is quite evident from the data presented in the Chart 3.10. Area harvested and yield per hectare could be among the causal variables for the decline in world coconut production.

The major observations are the following:

1.     Compound annual growth rate has been very low or marginal in coconut yield and it has been declining during the past half century. The CAGR in yield per hectare was 0.52 % for the 50 year period. Further, the CAGR in yield has been negative since 2007.

2.     Increase in area under harvesting, which indirectly reflects the area under coconut cultivation, has been marginal during the half century under consideration. The overall CAGR of 1.27 % for the 50 year period declined to 0.48 % during the past three decades. While the existing palms are aging and becoming senile with little yield and while there is hardly any replanting in the coconut farms, declining trend in area under coconut harvesting or cultivation does not augur well for the coconut industry.

3.     Growth rate (CAGR) in global coconut production has been coming down steadily during the 50 year period under study.  While the CAGR was 1.8 % for the 50 years, it declined to 1 % for the period 2000 to 2018. The CAGR turned negative since 2007.

 

3.5 COCONUT SECTOR REVIVAL: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The Coconut Crisis

The Newsweek has recently come out with a report on the “Coconut Crisis.” Demand for coconut based products are booming in the global market, primarily on the basis of their perceived health benefits. However, coconut production has been stagnating for decades. The Newsweek report observes: “The world is facing a coconut shortage on a massive scale. Demand has surged and the coconut palms planted over 70 years ago have become senile and need replanting. However, disease and limited propagation options mean that there will soon be a massive deficit that could seriously impact global trading.”[iv]

The trees cannot keep up with the demand. They were planted in the years following World War II. Since coconut trees are most productive between the ages of 10 and 30 years, the elderly trees yield less and less every year. Given that coconut trees take several years before they begin to produce food, there will be a continuing shortage, and higher prices, for coconut products for quite some time. [v]

 

Growing Demand for Coconut products

The coconut industry is currently driven by rapid growth and surging demand for coconut based products globally.[vi] The market outlooks for high value coconut products are extremely positive.[vii]

The growth prospects for the coconut product market is extremely positive and world demand for coconut products has been increasing in recent decades. The opportunity stems from the growing desire for high-value coconut products in the developed countries in North America and Europe. In particular, the demand has been growing for products such as virgin coconut oil, coconut water, coconut cream, etc., on account of their health benefits. [viii]

It is, therefore, imperative that the traditional coconut producing countries take this opportunity to improve and upscale their coconut manufacturing facilities so as to fulfil the huge market demand, especially from America, Europe, Middle East and East Asia. The situation calls for more efforts towards product development, diversification, quality assurance and research and development for high value coconut products.

Major Challenges

Despite the growing demand for new and innovative coconut products, traditional coconut farmers face several formidable challenges. 

The problems include low yield on account of ageing palms, low yielding varieties, pests and diseases, lack of farm maintenance, climate change and prevalence of cyclones, poor plantation management practices, low copra prices and very low farmer income.

The major challenges of the sector are threats to the coconut tree: senility, infestation, and climate change. Over 70 per cent of the existing coconut trees in the major coconut producing countries are reported to be past their productive life span. The majority of the coconut plantations are now due for replanting to replace the low productive and senile coconut palms.

A major issue leading to the coconut crisis is that land area for coconut cultivation has been stagnant for several decades, even in the major coconut producing countries. Land is being diverted for other crops in coconut plantations. Oil palms, which provide more income to the farmers than coconut palms, attract more land and investment. Land diversion for oil palm cultivation has been very common in Indonesia for several decades and the trend has taken roots in countries such as Malaysia, Philippines, etc.

The spread of new invasive pests and diseases has also threatened the sustainability of coconut planting. Experts call for developing an international data base and directory of coconut pests and diseases management, information sharing and connecting the experts and local authorities to control the coconut pests and diseases more effectively among the coconut producing countries. [ix]

Adoption of innovative coconut products has faced several barriers. Downstream coconut processing is not yet organised as an industrial operations and this restricts the coconut farmer to limit his options to producing raw materials, which provide low income. Technology development in the coconut processing sector has also been slow and there is lack of appropriate research and development procedures to allow coconut to be integrated into viable agribusiness activities.

Farmers have little access to village processing technologies and they find it difficult to establish new products with consistent quality at scale. Lack of access to finance or investment also adds to the constraints. Poor marketing and promotional activities augment these problems.

Financial constraint is one of the main reasons why farmers cannot properly manage their coconut land and replant the aging palms. The long gestation period for getting yield from the newly planted coconut palms makes coconut replanting an unattractive project for bankers and other lending institutions.

The proposed strategy for increasing coconut production includes the use of quality planting materials, building certified coconut seed gardens for replanting the unproductive palms, micro propagation of elite types of coconut through tissue and embryo culture, and promotion of good agricultural practices and management of pests and diseases.[x]

 

FAO High-Level Regional Expert Consultation: Recommendations

The FAO High-Level Regional Expert Consultation on Coconut Sector Development in Asia and the Pacific was organised in2013 in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 46 participants from 13 coconut growing countries in Asia and the Pacific attended the Expert Consultation and the participants included ministers, senior officials, coconut research institute directors, scientists and experts. To develop and sustain the coconut industry in the Asian region, the expert panel recommended 12 strategy suggestions to be adopted and implemented by the coconut producing Asian countries. [xi]

Extracts of these recommendations are given here:

1. There is a need to rehabilitate senile and unproductive palms in coconut growing countries in Asia. This will require coconut replanting using selected elite local varieties and hybrids.

2. The lack of quality coconut planting materials must be addressed. This will require more seed gardens to produce high yielding and early bearing coconut hybrids.

3. Commercial coconut wood utilization should be promoted. To provide an economic incentive for replanting or cutting of senile and unproductive coconut palms, there must be buyers for coconut logs.

4. There is a need to develop strategies against emerging coconut pests and diseases. As pests and diseases cause low yields, research on environmentally friendly bio control strategies using natural predators, pheromones and bio pesticides must be pursued.

5. Coconut-based farming systems models should be further developed, promoted and practised. To ensure food security, good nutrition and additional income in coconut communities, coconut-based farming system models involving intercropping of food crops, vegetables, fruit trees and industrial crops like coffee and cacao in between the coconut palms, as well as raising livestock like goats, cattle, chicken, etc. in the coconut farms must be vigorously promoted and practised.

6. Value-added coconut processing must be promoted. To be resilient in times of price volatilities, coconut farmers must not depend on copra alone. Coconut value-added products such as Virgin Coconut Oil (VCO), VCO-based soap and cosmetic products, coconut sugar, coconut vinegar, nata de coco, young tender coconuts, coconut shell charcoal and activated carbon, coir and coir-based products are some of the products that could add income to the coconut farmers.

7. Promote joint ventures among coconut growing countries. To take advantage of the synergistic effects of sharing technologies (technical know-how and experience), raw materials, and access to niche markets, joint ventures within and among coconut growing countries should be encouraged.

8. Promote the health attributes of coconut products through an aggressive awareness campaign and through joint R & D efforts in the conduct of clinical trials. Studies on coconut oil and its main components, known as medium chain fatty acids, have shown that coconut oil is beneficial as dietary oil, as a food supplement or functional food and as a therapeutic agent.

9. Enhance market promotion in traditional and niche markets. Coconut products can be certified as organic, GMO-free, natural, healthy and environmentally friendly.

10. Strengthen the National Coconut Extension Service.

11. Facilitate and support the formation of economically viable CBOs/Coconut Farmers’ Cooperatives.

12. To encourage investments in the coconut sector, the government, as a matter of policy, must consider coconut as a priority crop in its national agricultural development agenda.

 

REFERENCES